February 23rd, 2011
Author: Jeff Taylor
As Gaddafi uses the threat of total chaos in Libya if he is overthrown, Citywire reports on ten autocratic countries chosen by the Economist Intelligence Unit that could well be next on the list to follow suit should he fall.
Each country on the list has been given a ‘vulnerability’ score, with Libya’s standing at 6.7 out of 10.
Although home to the powerful US Fifth Fleet, Bahrain comes next on the list having recently suffered unrest, which resulted in police firing on protesters and also has a vulnerability score of 6.7/10
Yemen is listed as the most high risk with a vulnerability score of 8.8/10, but their President Saleh has recently tried to defuse the situation ahead of time by declaring that he will step down in 2013.
Although geographically and religiously separated from the current focus of events, Zimbabwe features next with a vulnerability score of 7.6/10. According to the report ‘ … the regime fears similar protests by its people, who are among the world’s poorest. Police recently arrested dozens of students, trade unionists and political activists who gathered to watch news reports on the uprisings on suspicion of plotting to oust President Robert Mugabe … ‘. The subject of the meeting’s agenda? ‘What lessons can be learnt by Zimbabwe and Africa?‘
Algeria with a vulnerability ranking of 7.6/10 is seen as ‘ripe’ for revolution. The government has already tried top appease the people with promises to lift the state of emergency and hand out jobs and housing.
Another vulnerable regime that is far from the epicentre but also on the list is Madagascar with a vulnerability score of 7.3/10.
The Western Ally, Jordan, is also on the list with a vulnerability score of 7.3/10.Again the king has tried to ease tensions but recent protests in the capital Amman did become violent.
Who's next if Gadaffi falls? (citywire)
Syria comes in with a vulnerability score of 7.3/10 after 30 years under President Bashar Assad and a further ten under his son Hafez.
The budding regional nuclear power Iran also has a vulnerability score of 7.3/10. Recent events show that there is a strong element of unrest in the country.
With many of its people calling for political reform Morocco comes next, another with a vulnerability score of 7.3/10.
Last on the list reported by Citywire is Saudi Arabia with, yet again, a vulnerability score of 7.3/10. This country, says the report, gives its people virtually no political representation and also has a rigid form of Sunni Islam.